Tension between the United States and China is nothing new, but the latest step could affect several American industries.
In recent years, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese products to level the economic playing field. The moves aimed to equalize trade and reduce reliance on foreign goods but forced China to respond.
Unfortunately, one of the latest products caught in the deteriorating trade war is an elemental metal called antimony. But what is antimony, and why is it vital to U.S. security?
Antimony, element number 51, is a semi-metal that is silver, brittle, and shiny when metallic.
The element is part of Group 15 on the periodic table alongside nitrogen, phosphorus, arsenic, bismuth, and moscovium. This group, known as the nitrogen group or family, has five electrons in their outer valances.
Although considered a rare earth element, antimony has a long history. Meaning “metal not found alone”, the mineral dates back to the Egyptians, who used antimony sulfide for cosmetics and medicine. Miners extract it with other elements, most often from stibnite ore containing sulfur. It’s also a byproduct of gold mining.
You won’t find antimony used in cosmetics and medicines today – now it’s a technological component, especially in electronics. Manufacturers use an indium-antimony mixture called indium-antimonide during semiconductor production for transistors. In other cases, the element is a catalyst for flame retardants in plastics.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) added antimony to its critical minerals list because of its uses, including:
Military: The military uses antimony in armor-piercing bullets and other ammunition, optics, infrared sensors, and night-vision goggles.
Batteries: Manufacturers use it in lead-acid batteries for cars.
Solders: Used in lead-free and tin-based plumbing solders to increase strength and reduce fatigue.
Electronics: High-purity antimony is crucial to the semiconductor industry for silicon wafers, infrared products, and diodes.
Plastics: Antimony additives offer flame retardance and pigmentation.
Solar Energy: Used as a glass clarifying agent to improve solar panel efficiency and performance.
Like other rare earths on the USGS’ critical mineral list, antimony is critical to the country’s stability.
But what would happen if the U.S. ran into a potential supply chain issue caused by its ongoing feud with China? The U.S. heavily relies on antimony imports (more than 80% of its total consumption) to meet its needs.
To avoid trouble, the country has begun to act, but the road ahead might be bumpy.
Given how frosty the China/U.S. relationship is, it wasn’t surprising when China reduced its antimony exports.
Last year, China reduced exports of other critical minerals, including graphite, germanium, and gallium, citing national security. However, the situation is not so simple.
Yes, there’s truth in the statement, but it also comes down to understanding the antimony production supply chain. China is a large-scale producer and smelter, generating about half of the world’s mined output.
When the country reduces production and exports, supply suddenly dries up while demand stays strong.
When supply dips without a drop in demand, prices jump.
The price for antimony has doubled this year to $22,000 per metric ton, hitting record highs. Unfortunately, because antimony has uses across the military, technology, and energy, our national security is at stake.
The critical mineral is also critical for the burgeoning solar industry, which is surging. Solar panel production may suffer without antimony, leading to manufacturing and shipping delays and higher costs.
China is the world’s foremost antimony mining and processing leader but still relies on raw materials from other countries for consumption or export.
The problem is there aren’t many other places to source the element. According to U.S. Antimony Corporation co-CEO Gary Evans during an interview with Mining Technology, China has slowly bought mines in other countries for years.
As China controlled more production and produced more material, prices nosedived. In turn, other mines couldn’t stay profitable and shut down, including ones in the U.S. and Canada. Each time a mine closed, Chinese exports controlled more of the market.
After years of preparation, China’s tight grip on the market has the world on edge. Although it’s possible to reopen old mines or develop new ones, the process is long, exhaustive, and hard on the environment.
With fewer Chinese exports, what can the U.S. do to keep a steady supply of a critical mineral?
The U.S. has a small stockpile of 1,100 tons of antimony, but it pales to the nearly 23,000 tons used in 2023. Facing a critical supply gap, the U.S. has several options available.
Several states, including Alaska, Idaho, Nevada, and Montana, potentially have antimony resources, but only one has been mined in the past.
“The only U.S. reserve of antimony is in Idaho,” one of Kris-Tech’s supply partners explained. “There is a proposal to reopen the mine, but it is not settled yet. Naturally there is pushback from conservation groups regarding what pollution from the mine would do to the area.”
Antimony hasn’t been mined in the U.S. in nearly 30 years and plans to open mines raise environmental concerns. Additionally, the element is both poisonous and carcinogenic and can leach into soil and water.
“The proposal is currently in a 45-day open objection period,” the partner continued. “Even if the proposal were to get approved it would be years before production would start, so this would not be a source of immediate relief for the current ATO situation.”
Outside of mining, only one U.S. company, the United States Antimony Corporation (USAC), processes the mineral. However, it has relied on imports since the early 1980s since they are cheaper than domestic products.
USAC wants to increase smelting production at its Thompson Falls, MT location. However, it can only expand by buying more materials. Though it’s possible to increase capacity through purchasing, the company may have to strike deals with a few nations.
Beyond buying more antimony, some experts have proposed reopening old mines to boost domestic supply. The United States doesn’t have a large stockpile of domestic reserves but holds about three percent of the world’s antimony deposits.
The problem with this plan is that mines are difficult to open, thanks to an endless stream of regulatory red tape. Additionally, environmental hazards caused by mining byproducts will likely involve Environmental Protection Agency oversight.
China produced nearly half the world’s global antimony in 2023 but isn’t the only country mining.
Australia, Bolivia, Burma, Russia, Turkey, and Tajikistan also mine antimony, though not nearly as much as China. Regardless, the U.S. has access to global supplies.
One country has become a potential trade partner, especially as the U.S. divests itself from Chinese dependence. Tajikistan, which currently produces the third most antimony behind China and Russia, could be a strategic partner. The two countries have a somewhat positive relationship despite Tajikistan’s Russian ties.
The issue tied to Tajikistan and other antimony producers, though, is China’s role as a refiner. Most mining nations lack processing capabilities, so much of what they mine is exported to China for processing. For the United States to avoid China’s influence, it needs to find options for both mining and processing.
One potential solution to avoid imports from China would be to help USAC expand, allowing the company to domestically process antimony. The U.S. could import antimony from one of several friendly countries, and then process it on U.S. soil.
Replacing antimony isn’t easy, but it’s possible.
For example, according to the USGS, hydrated aluminum oxide is one substitute for antimony in flame retardants. Lithium-ion and nickel-metal hydride compounds could be replacements for lead-acid batteries, though not as effective.
Replacements are typically available during a shortage, but they often come with shortcomings. Either the replacement lacks performance, is more expensive, or is tough to obtain.
Sometimes, the replacement makes sense but has a complicated supply chain. This can lead to sourcing problems, cost issues, and potential delays. Other times, materials may be easily accessible but pose environmental hazards during mining.
“In wire and cable, antimony Trioxide (ATO) has been used as a flame-retardant synergist for decades and will not be easy to replace,” a partner of Kris-Tech’s noted. “I think the more likely path forward would involve a fundamentally different technology/chemistry rather than a direct replacement for antimony in the current technologies/systems.”
This isn’t the first time the U.S. has played political games with its Asian rival.
Though there are expectations the price will fall to a more manageable range, it might be a little while before we see it happen. In the meantime, higher raw material prices eventually become higher product prices. We also face potential supply chain disruptions.
Costs are expected to continue rising through the end of the year, and the outlook for 2025 isn’t certain. Large buyers may have an easier time securing raw material because they can more easily absorb higher prices. Smaller buyers may struggle without strong supplier relationships and a diversified supply chain.
While countries and companies search for raw materials and pay higher premiums for them, competition rises. In addition, scarcity could trigger disruptions and delays in the supply chain as producers race to keep up.
Beyond raw materials, products containing antimony may become harder to find, including certain electronics, batteries, or plastics. Eventually, consumers will need to look elsewhere for answers.
When there’s less material available, countries and companies must find creative solutions to their supply problems.
Sometimes, it means asking oneself if substitutions are available and what effects they may have on the final product. Are there cost-effective ways to avoid a short-term shortage? Is it possible to front-load purchases to prevent price increases or shortages in the future?
Prices are at an all-time high but should subside eventually.
Until then, keep an open line of communication with your supply chain partners to stay in the loop. This helps everyone in the system understand the situation and better predict upcoming changes.
“The key to dealing with this situation is not to overreact but to be proactive,” Marcus Tagliaferri, Supply Chain Director for Kris-Tech, said. “Keep inventories healthy, mitigate minor disruptions, and, most importantly, stay close to your suppliers through regular communication.”
With better communication and partnership throughout the supply chain, everyone is less stressed. More organization and understanding within the chain also lessen the effects of potential issues, even eliminating them.
“No one is happy to contend with higher prices due to antimony tightness, but many resources are working on solutions, Tagliaferri explained. “Like most markets, the supply will correct itself, and prices will eventually return to somewhat normal levels.”
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